Russians have reduced their stockpile of cruise missiles, Ukrainian Armed Forces have successes at the front - military analyst Tom Cooper's review of the fighting

Austrian military analyst Tom Cooper, who analyzes the situation at the front in Ukraine, has published another brief report on the situation in Ukraine. The expert noticed a decrease in Russia's cruise missile stockpile and noted the success of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the war.

Missile stockpiles

Tom Cooper reported that "Russia seems to have exhausted its stockpile of ballistic and cruise missiles during the failed 'blitz' on Kyiv in May."

The analyst noted that over the past two weeks, the Russians have only been trying to strike Ukraine with a small number of cruise missiles: "Ballistic missiles are deployed only about once a week."

He emphasized that Russia has been using Shahed drones more recently.

"By the way, according to US Defense News, the majority of Shaheds shot down between September 2022 and January 2023 - at least 540 - were shot down by German Gepard anti-aircraft systems," Cooper added.

Read also: Special Forces destroyed more than 20 units of occupiers' equipment (video)

Enemy aircraft

Cooper writes that over the past two weeks, the Russians have regularly responded to Ukrainian attacks on their Ka-52 (and less frequently Mi-28) attack helicopters.

"And in the beginning, they were mainly deploying LMUR PGMs (lightweight multi-purpose air-to-surface guided missiles used to arm helicopters. - Ed.) LMURs have a maximum range of about 14,000 meters, a powerful impact, and appear to have struck a number of Ukrainian equipment in the first two weeks of this month. Meanwhile, the Russians seem to have exhausted their stockpile of such weapons... and so they have reverted to using the smaller (10,000 meter) Vykhor. This, in turn, came within the range of Ukrainian air defense," the analyst added.

He reminded that on June 14, a Russian Ka-52 was shot down near Zaporizhzhia, and then three more such helicopters were "grounded" by the Ukrainian Armed Forces on June 17, 18 and 19. He believes that the enemy helicopters were fired upon by the Ukrainian Armed Forces using the SAMP-T air defense system (jointly developed by France and Italy).

The battle for Donbas

Military analyst Tom Cooper noted that in the southern and eastern directions, the Russians have concentrated their forces in the direction of Yampolivka and Zarichne. In his opinion, "it's an interesting attempt to get the Ukrainians to relieve pressure on southern Zaporizhzhia and southwestern Donetsk and move some of their reserves north."

"This itch in my pinky toe says: a good sign," he wrote in his blog.

He also informs that the Russians have a massive concentration of forces in the rear in the Svatove-Kremina-Rubizhne-Lysychansk area. "They had the opportunity to redeploy them to the south of Ukraine or to 'do something' with them where they are. They chose the latter. I don't know how well it will work. All we can say is that even the airborne units are limited to daytime operations, lacking the communications, training and equipment to defeat the Ukrainian army in a 1-on-1 situation," Cooper said.

Successes of the Ukrainian Armed Forces

The analyst noted that the Ukrainian Armed Forces are still cautiously but methodically "passing the first line of defense in the south." According to him, this approach is necessary in order to limit its own losses to a minimum, while providing the maximum possible support for the attacking troops.

Finally, he summarized:

This is a major change in "tactics" from earlier this month. The Russians are still counterattacking at every opportunity: of course, their junior and mid-level officers are terrible, and their mass of units on the 1st line has been reduced by at least a third in the meantime. However, their training, communication, and planning are better than expected, and there is no doubt that their senior commanders are trying to use every opportunity to inflict losses on the Ukrainian army. In other words: they still know what they are doing and have their troops under control. However, they are hopelessly outgunned in night battles, and this is something that the Ukrainian army is making the most of, as well as the overwhelming defensive capability of its units: it seems that nowadays, thanks to excellent training and fire support, one Ukrainian battalion can defeat two or even more Russian equivalents.

To recap, Zaluzhny showed how soldiers from the 128th Brigade liberated Pyatikhatky from the enemy.

If you want to get the latest news about the war and events in Ukraine, subscribe to our Telegram channel!